An improved understanding of the dispersal patterns of marine organisms is a prerequisite for successful marine resource management. For species with dispersing larvae, regional-scale hydrodynamic models provide a means of obtaining results over relevant spatial and temporal scales. In an effort to better understand the role of the physical environment in dispersal, we simulated the transport of reef fish larvae among 321 reefs in and around the Cairns Section of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park over a period of 20 years. Based on regional-scale hydrodynamics, our models predict the spatial and temporal frequency of significant self-recruitment of the larvae of certain species. Furthermore, the results suggest the importance of a select few local populations in ensuring the persistence of reef fish metapopulations over regional scales.
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